2023/24 Bundesliga 2 permutations: Who can be promoted? Who can be relegated?
St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel are both on the cusp, it's last-chance saloon for Hamburg to catch Fortuna Düsseldorf, and who will join Osnabrück in going down? bundesliga.com runs you through the Matchday 33 permutations in Germany's second division…
Predict the remaining matches and see how they would impact the table
Promotion
Holstein Kiel reclaimed top spot with two games to go. Their advantage over Fortuna Düsseldorf in third place is five points before the pair meet on Saturday evening. Kiel will therefore be promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time if they avoid defeat at home.
Derby defeat last week saw St. Pauli drop to second, but they are still four points ahead of Fortuna. They will secure a top-flight return this weekend if:
- They win at home to Osnabrück on Sunday
- They draw and Fortuna fail to win in Kiel on Saturday
- Düsseldorf lose in Kiel on Saturday
Watch: Hamburg 1-0 St. Pauli - Matchday 32 highlights
Third place/play-off spot
Both Kiel and Pauli are already assured of a top-three finish and therefore at least a crack at the play-off.
Düsseldorf will also guarantee at least a shot at the play-off if:
- They win in Kiel on Saturday
- They draw and Hamburg fail to win in Paderborn on Friday
- HSV lose on Friday night
Hamburg in fourth are four points behind and the only other team in contention for promotion, but it is out of their hands.
Read more about the promotion race here
Watch: Düsseldorf beat Nuremberg to keep their automatic promotion hopes alive
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Relegation
Osnabrück's Matchday 32 fixture against Schalke was postponed until the following Tuesday, with defeat meaning an immediate return to the 3. Liga a year after their promotion. They are six points adrift at the bottom and with a much worse goal difference, meaning they will likely finish the season in 18th.
Hansa Rostock in 17th are four points away from outright safety. They will be relegated if:
- They lose at Schalke on Saturday, followed by a Wiesbaden victory in Braunschweig on Sunday
Safety
All teams placed 11th and above are safe after Schalke's midweek win. The rest are all at risk, with only six points separating Magdeburg in 12th and Rostock in 17th.
Magdeburg (vs. Greuther Fürth on Friday) and Nuremberg (vs. Elversberg on Saturday) are both on 37 points alongside Schalke and will be safe if:
- They win
- Wehen Wiesbaden (at Eintracht Braunschweig on Sunday) and Rostock (at Schalke on Saturday) both fail to win
- Rostock fail to win, and both Kaiserslautern (at Hertha Berlin on Saturday) and Braunschweig both lose (since they play each other on the final day)
Kaiserslautern in 14th on 36 points will be safe if:
- They win at Hertha on Saturday
- They draw, and both Wiesbaden and Rostock fail to win
- Wiesbaden lose and Rostock fail to win
Eintracht Braunschweig in 15th on 35 points are safe if:
- They beat Wiesbaden on Sunday
Wiesbaden in 16th on 32 points can no longer be automatically relegated if:
- They win in Braunschweig, after a Rostock defeat at Schalke
Read more about promotion and relegation in Germany
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