2023/24 Bundesliga permutations: Who can qualify for Europe, who will be relegated?
Bayern Munich and VfB Stuttgart will jostle it out to finish second behind Bayer Leverkusen, European places are still to be decided, and who will join Darmstadt in going down? Find out who needs what on the final day of the season...
Make your predictions for the last matchday to see how the table could look
Title
This is done and dusted already, with Leverkusen ending Bayern’s 11-year reign with the third-quickest title in 61 seasons of the Bundesliga on Matchday 29. The question now for the Werkself is whether they can become the first-ever unbeaten side. They have just 90 minutes to go against Augsburg to achieve that...
Watch: Leverkusen’s title story
Runners-up
Second place is still up for grabs, with Bayern currently in the better position. The deposed champions are two points above Stuttgart, meaning they will finish as runners-up if they win at Hoffenheim or just equal VfB's result at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
A draw is also likely enough for the Munich side given they are 16 goals better off. Stuttgart will need to win and hope Bayern lose if they are to secure a famous finish.
The runners-up could even contest next season's Supercup, if Leverkusen also win the DFB Cup final against Kaiserslautern.
Watch: The season finale!
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UEFA Champions League
Leverkusen became the first team from any country to book their place in the revamped 2024/25 Champions League way back on Matchday 27.
Matchday 31 saw Bayern officially clinch their Champions League spot with a win against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Borussia Dortmund's semi-final first-leg victory over Paris Saint-Germain secured the Bundesliga a fifth Champions League qualifier berth. Therefore, Stuttgart, RB Leipzig and BVB are all now also assured of Champions League football in 2024/25.
Find out more about how the Bundesliga earned a fifth Champions League spot
Watch: Dortmund one win from Champions League glory
Remaining European places
Sixth place
As it stands, sixth place will mean UEFA Europa League qualification.
Eintracht Frankfurt (46 points, +1 goal difference) have been in sixth all year and will finish there if:
- They gain at least a point at home to Leipzig
- Hoffenheim fail to beat Bayern
- They lose but Hoffenheim fail to win by enough goals to overturn the three-goal difference
Conversely, Hoffenheim in seventh (43 pts, -2 GD) will snatch sixth if:
- They beat Bayern and Frankfurt lose to Leipzig with scores that see a three-goal swing
Since Dortmund are certain to finish fifth, if they are also crowned European champions this season by beating Real Madrid in the final at Wembley, the team that finishes sixth in the Bundesliga would also qualify for the Champions League.
Seventh place
Currently, the team that comes seventh in this season’s Bundesliga will be in next season’s UEFA Conference League play-offs.
Frankfurt are assured of finishing at least seventh.
Hoffenheim will finish at least seventh if:
- They beat Bayern
- Freiburg draw at Union Berlin and TSG do not lose by 11 goals or more
- Freiburg lose
Freiburg in eighth (42 pts, -12 GD) will finish seventh if:
- They win at Union and Hoffenheim fail to beat Bayern
If Leverkusen win the DFB Cup to complete a domestic double following the completion of the Bundesliga season, then seventh place would become a Europa League spot, with the team that finishes eighth going into the Conference League play-offs.
In the event of Dortmund winning the Champions League (since they will finish fifth) and Leverkusen the DFB Cup, there will still only be eight German qualifiers for Europe - first to sixth in the Champions League, seventh in the Europa League, eighth in the Conference League play-offs.
Heidenheim (ninth), Augsburg (10th) and Werder Bremen (11th) are all on 39 points and still in with a chance of finishing eighth. They will not know if eighth place is enough for European qualification until after the Bundesliga season finishes.
More on the Bundesliga's race for Europe
Relegation
The bottom two drop down to Bundesliga 2 automatically, while third from bottom will contest the play-off against the team that finishes third in the second division (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
Bottom side Darmstadt are relegated after only one season back in the top flight after their loss to fellow promoted side Heidenheim on Matchday 31. They will also finish in 18th place.
Cologne (27 pts, -29 GD) are still teetering over the edge but produced a dramatic late comeback to win their six-pointer against Union and keep their slim hopes alive going into the final day. For them to stand any chance of snatching 16th place, they need to:
- Beat Heidenheim, and Union lose to Freiburg, with a swing of four goals in their favour (should Cologne score five goals, then a three-goal swing could also be enough)
Union Berlin (30 pts, -26 GD) are assured of at least a shot at salvation in the play-off if:
- They avoid defeat against Freiburg
- Cologne fail to win in Heidenheim
- They lose, and Cologne win but only make up three goals (also see above regarding Cologne scoring five or more)
There could also be the scenario where Cologne and Union finish on the same points, goal difference and goals scored (e.g. Union lose 1-0, Cologne win 4-2). In this case, Union would stay ahead on their head-to-head record (2-0 win, 3-2 loss).
The following critera are used to determine position when teams are level on points, of which only the first three would be relevant here:
- Goal difference in the season
- Goals scored in the season
- Aggregate score in head-to-head
- Away goals scored in head-to-head
- Away goals scored in the season
- A deciding match at a neutral ground
Watch: Cologne's dramatic late win against Union
More on the relegation battle here
Safety
People often talk about the 40-point mark for safety in the Bundesliga, but 34 is enough this year. It means all teams from 13th and above cannot go down.
Bochum in 14th (33 pts, -29 GD) cannot be automatically relegated and will now be completely safe if:
- They avoid defeat in Bremen
- Mainz lose in Wolfsburg
- Union fail to beat Freiburg
Mainz in 15th (32 pts, -14 GD) will complete their great escape if:
- They win in Wolfsburg
- They draw and Union fail to win by at least 12 goals
- They draw and Bochum lose in Bremen
- Union fail to beat Freiburg
Union Berlin in 16th (30 pts, -26 GD) will avoid the play-off and be safe if:
- They beat Freiburg and Mainz lose in Wolfsburg
- They win and Bochum lose in Bremen
- They win by at least 12 goals and Mainz draw
Find out about the teams coming up from Bundesliga 2
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