Germany have not lost a match in the regular 90 minutes since November 2023. - © IMAGO/Marcel van Dorst/DeFodi Images
Germany have not lost a match in the regular 90 minutes since November 2023. - © IMAGO/Marcel van Dorst/DeFodi Images
bundesliga

5 reasons Germany will win the UEFA Nations League

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Germany have built on a good UEFA Euro 2024 campaign to go unbeaten in the Nations League so far. bundesliga.com outlines why Julian Nagelsmann's boys can win the tournament...

1) Nailed-on with Nagelsmann?

It took a little time to come together, like any good thing, but a year after taking charge the Julian Nagelsmann era is looking increasingly like a golden one for the German national team. Two defeats and a draw in his opening four matches made Naglesmann pause to think, but the 37-year-old has since shown he has both the tactical brains and motivational spirit to thrive in the tricky environment of international coaching.

The former Hoffenheim, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich boss settled on a 4-2-3-1 formation in a friendly in France in March, and has not altered it or looked back since. The 2-0 win in Lyon kick-started a run of 13 matches without defeat over 90 minutes for Germany (the narrow extra-time loss against Spain in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals being the only dampener).

Julian Nagelsmann won ten of his first 17 matches in charge of Germany. - IMAGO/David Klein

Nagelsmann masterfully channeled the expectations of the German public in a home tournament when a strong campaign was desperately wanted but did not look assured - and got his players playing with a freedom that won them a place in the hearts of the nation. Seamlessly taking that momentum into the Nations League campaign despite the international retirement of four experienced internationals and three 2014 World Cup winners - plus a lengthy injury list in the October international break, is perhaps an even greater achievement.

His "unbelievable energy and spirit" has been praised by DFB president Bernd Neuendorf, and Nagelsmann will be hugely motivated to get a second major trophy to add to his 2021/22 Bundesliga crown when the Nations League concludes in 2025.  

2) Strength in depth

The recent challenges for Naglesmann have exposed a big asset - the huge wealth of talent at his disposal ready to perform on the international stage. With four players retired and seven injured when Germany faced Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Netherlands in October, there were question marks at how an improvised side would get on. 

Deniz Undav has scored three goals in his first five appearances for Germany. - Maja Hitij

The serene confidence continued despite the enforced changes - with a 2-1 win in Bosnia thanks to a brace from a player whose form for Stuttgart forced him into the Germany picture, Deniz Undav. Debutant Oliver Baumann then kept a clean sheet as Germany beat the Netherlands 1-0, with the winning goal remarkably also coming from a player making his first start - Jamie Leweling. Angelo Stiller and Aleksandar Pavlović formed a useful pairing in central defensive midfield, while the more experienced Tim Kleindienst showed he was worthy of a spot in attack.

What a bonus it must be for Nagelsmann to know whoever might get injured or lose form over the long season ahead, there will be someone ready to step up when called upon next summer if Germany make the Nations League's final four.

3) Jewels in the crown

Germany can be content with their quality all over the pitch, but there is one area they really excel right now - in the playmaking department stocked by young marvels Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz.

The pair of tricksters can be unplayable at times, and there are signs they are growing even stronger. Musiala had six goals in five matches for Bayern Munich going into the November international break - the kind of form that reopens the puzzlement that he was not on the shortlist for this season's Ballon d'Or - while Wirtz has bagged two goals and two assists in his last five appearances for Germany.

Having dependable world-class players like them could prove extremely valuable in the final stages of the Nations League. 

4) Feelgood factor

Haven't we been here before? Germany defied muted expectations to become the feelgood hits of the summer, and despite suffering heartache in the knockout stages rode the wave of momentum for success...

The big hope has to be that 2024 follows the blueprint of 2006, when Germany's original summer fairytale saw the World Cup hosts edged out by Italy in the semi-finals - but go on to apply themselves to making the final few yards to tournament glory. The progress was clear as they became beaten finalists in Euro 2008 and enjoyed a strong 2010 World Cup, yet a tournament victory proved elusive until a glorious 2014 World Cup in Brazil. 

Germany have a chance to turn Euro 2024 disappointment into motivation for Nations League success. - Carl Recine

2016 to 2022 marked a barren period for the German national team, with two successive World Cup group stage exits. What better way could there be of marking what has all the hallmarks of a new upwards spiral - with the 2026 World Cup moving onto the horizion - than Nations League victory in 2025? 

Nagelsmann has summed up the current spirit by saying: "We've got the ambition to keep going. There's a supercharged atmosphere in the dressing room – they want to win."

5) Penalty precision

Germany are well on course to top their Nations League group, which would pair them against a second-placed finisher (currently Croatia, France and Denmark) in a two-legged quarter-final. Should they navigate that, Spain are one of the sides they could well have to face in the final four - potentially setting up a chance for redemption a year after the Euro 2024 heartache.

Should things get tight in the final four, history suggests Germany can be counted on to keep their nerves if it goes down to penalties - winning all six of their past six shootouts going back to 1976.