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Who will escape the drop in what is shaping up to be another intense relegation tussle?
Who will escape the drop in what is shaping up to be another intense relegation tussle? - © DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga
Who will escape the drop in what is shaping up to be another intense relegation tussle? - © DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga
bundesliga

The 2024/25 relegation battle: who will escape the drop?

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Having only survived via the relegation/promotion play-offs last season, Bochum are once again battling to stay up in 2024/25 – but they are just one of a number of teams aiming to do so.

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Augsburg
Position: 12th
Points: 26 (from 20 games)
Goals: 24:35 (-11)

Not only are Die Fuggerstädter conceding at an alarming rate (33 so far) - including letting in three or more on six occasions - they have only scored 21 times and have failed to hit the target at all in six games. 

“We couldn’t really enjoy the festive period this year,” said Thorup. “The [5-1] defeat in Kiel hurt us for a few days, but now we want to look forward. We want to improve in every area so we need complete focus.”

The desire to get better has extended to his backroom staff, with the 54-year-old recruiting Mathias Kleine-Möllhoff over the winter break to head up a newly founded sports psychology department at the club. They weren't able to start 2025 with a positive result, as they lost 1-0 to Stuttgart on Matchday 16, but back-to-back 2-0 wins over Union Berlin and Werder Bremen, and a 2-1 win over Heidenheim, suggest they could be turning a corner. They extended their unbeaten run to four games on Matchday 20 with a 1-1 draw away at St. Pauli.

Will Jess Thorup come up with a way to get Augsburg out of trouble? - IMAGO/Grant Hubbs

St. Pauli 
Position: 13th
Points: 21 (from 20 games)
Goals: 18:22 (-4)

This season was always going to be a tough one for St. Pauli. A first campaign in the top flight tends to be tricky for promoted teams, but all the more so for the Boys in Brown after their Bundesliga 2-winning coach Fabian Hürzeler left to join Brighton over the summer, with Alexander Blessin taking over.

The 51-year-old has kept Pauli’s backline in good working order: with only 20 goals conceded, they have let in fewer than the likes of Bayer Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund. 

However, they have found goals difficult to come by and have scored the joint-lowest number (15) of all the top-flight teams. Blessin has worked to remedy that and made early moves in the January transfer window, bringing in winger Noah Weißhaupt on loan from Freiburg and promising centre-forward Abdoulie Ceesay.

If the Hamburg-based side can click going forward, they should soon be able to pull away from the danger zone. After consecutive 1-0 defeats at home to Frankfurt and away to Bochum, Blessin's boys gained hope with a crucial back-to-back wins; a 2-0 win away at Heidenheim on Matchday 18, followed by a 3-0 win at home to Union Berlin the following week, lifted them slightly away from the dogfight at the bottom. Earning a 1-1 draw on Matchday 20 against Augsburg extended Blessin's side's unbeaten run to three games without defeat.

Watch: Highlights of Pauli's Matchday 15 win over Stuttgart

Union Berlin 
Position: 14th
Points: 21 (from 20 games)
Goals: 16:27 (-11)

One of Union’s defining characteristics in recent seasons – from gaining promotion to the Bundesliga to securing UEFA Champions League qualification – has been their miserly defence.

Interestingly, that has not changed in 2024/25. With just 23 goals conceded, Union boast the joint-fourth tightest defence in the division, level with or better than all of the top five except for Bayern Munich.

And they score highly in other metrics, too. They rank second for total duels won (1,808), third for aerial duels won (405), second for fouls committed (236), third for overall distance covered (2164.8 kilometres), first for intensive runs (13,603), and third for yellow cards received (48).

So if they’re defending well and remain physically imposing, what is going on? Well, it seems their problems this term have come in the final third, where their tally of 16 goals scored is the lowest in the division. They showed signs of attacking improvement against Mainz on Matchday 18 as they prevailed 2-1, which was Steffen Baumgart's first win as head coach, before falling to defeat against relegation rivals St. Pauli on Matchday 19. Matchday 20 brought with it another goalless draw for the Irons as they hosted Leipzig. But, the former Cologne boss used to play for Union, and his passion for the club could give them the boost they need to stay away from trouble.

Hoffenheim 
Position: 15th
Points: 18 (from 19 games)
Goals: 26:40 (-14)

Despite – or perhaps because of – finishing seventh in the Bundesliga last season and therefore qualifying for the UEFA Europa League, Hoffenheim have struggled for consistency this term. 

They have not managed to win any of their Bundesliga matches immediately following a European assignment, nor have they recorded back-to-back wins in the league, while the team’s longest unbeaten stretch is just two games.

Christian Ilzer, who enjoyed great success as head coach of Sturm Graz in Austria, was brought in to steer the ship to calmer waters following the dismissal of Pellegrino Matarazzo after Matchday 10 in November.

His debut hinted at better things to come as the side came from behind to beat RB Leipzig 4-3, but that remains the only win of his tenure so far. Three draws and five defeats followed in all competitions until a 3-1 win at strugglers Holstein Kiel provided a boost on Matchday 18. A bright, energetic performance saw them draw 2-2 with Frankfurt on Matchday 19, on a day where they could have easily taken all three points rather than one. Matchday 20 was always going to be challenging as they were beaten on the road 3-1 by reigning champions Leverkusen.

Ilzer has plenty of quality to work with, notably Andrej Kramarić up front and the ever-improving Tom Bischof in midfield, while Gift Orban, a January signing from Lyon, should provide greater firepower going forward.

Heidenheim 
Position: 16th
Points: 14 (from 20 games)
Goals: 25:42 (-17)

Heidenheim, much like Hoffenheim, are perhaps victims of their own success last season. Consistently impressive displays not only earned qualification to the UEFA Conference League, they shone a spotlight on their best players, with top scorer Tim Kleindienst and top assist provider Jan-Niklas Beste lured away over the summer.

That left head coach Frank Schmidt with a rebuilding job, all while navigating the extra workload and travel that European competition involves. A leaky defence has been the main issue: having conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game in 2023/24, that figure stands at 2.53 per match this season.

Schmidt is a wily operator, though, and will have a plan figured out. He has already showed his hand by making two early January signings in the shape of Bundesliga 2 top scorer Budu Zivzivadze and Bayern Munich loanee Frans Krätzig, with the latter scoring on his debut in the 2-0 win over Union Berlin on Matchday 16.

A battling 3-3 draw at Werder Bremen was followed by a disappointing 2-0 defeat at home to St. Pauli, and then another defeat (2-1) to Augsburg. Frank Schmidt's men lost their third consecutive Bundesliga game on Matchday 20 against Borussia Dortmund (2-1), leaving Heidenheim in the thick of a relegation struggle.

Watch: The best of Budu Zivzivadze

Holstein Kiel
Position: 17th
Points: 12 (from 20 games)
Goals: 31:52 (-20)

The season was looking rather bleak for Kiel until a morale-boosting 5-1 win at home to Augsburg just before the winter break provided renewed hope of survival.

“You could see what we’re capable of,” said Phil Harres, scorer of two goals in that victory. “We needed that. Obviously it makes no difference if we win 2-1 or 5-1, but it’s a fantastic psychological boost.”

Although Kiel fell to Freiburg 3-2 in their first match of 2025, they bagged an impressive 4-2 win over Dortmund on Matchday 17, with Harres scoring again to underline his successful leap up from the fourth tier, having signed from Homburg in the summer. The 22-year-old now has seven goals to his name in his maiden top-flight campaign, and with Japan striker Shuto Machino on seven goals and two assists, it's clear Kiel do have the weapons to cause opponents problems. 

Their 2-2 draw on Matchday 6 away at reigning champions Leverkusen – who had gone 2-0 up inside eight minutes – also provides testament to the team’s grit on their day. They just need to have their day more often. That and plugging the holes in the division’s most porous defence, which has let in 43 goals already. To that end, head coach Marcel Rapp signed Slovenia international David Zec in early January to marshall the rearguard from centre-back. 

Currently just three points shy of outright safety, Kiel could really turn their season around with a couple more surprising results. A 2-2 draw away to Wolfsburg on Matchday 19 was a step in the right direction, but they still have ground to make up if they are to survive. A late, attempted comeback away at league leaders Bayern Munich on Matchday 20 (4-3) may offer promising sides in terms of their performance, but it was another result which unfortunately didn't go their way.

Watch: Highlights of Kiel's thumping win over Augsburg

Bochum 
Position: 18th
Points: 10 (from 20 games)
Goals: 17:44 (-27)

Bochum, much like Hoffenheim, have not had the new-coach bounce they were hoping for when they replaced Peter Ziedler - less than four months after hiring him - for renowned firefighter Dieter Hecking.

The 60-year-old presided over a respectable 1-1 draw against Leverkusen in his first game in charge but that was followed by three consecutive defeats and then a draw at Union (a result which was later awarded as a win after goalkeeper Patrick Drewes was hit by an object from the crowd).

A 2-0 success over Heidenheim right before Christmas offered a glimmer of hope given that it was their first win - and first clean sheet - of the season, but Matchday 16's 2-0 loss in Mainz - not to mention Kiel's Matchday 17 win - made them look on course for the drop once more. Bochum's 1-0 victory over relegation contenders St. Pauli on Matchday 17 and incredible 3-3 comeback draw against Leipzig on Matchday 18 provided a glimmer of hope for Hecking's side, before a 3-0 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach reminded them of the size of the task at hand, reinforced ever further by a 1-0 home defeat against Freiburg.

They should continue to show that same fighting spirit, anything might be possible!

Watch: Highlights of Bochum's dramatic comeback against Leipzig

With the season just past the halfway stage, more twists and turns are assured in the battle for Bundesliga safety.