Who will escape the drop in what is shaping up to be another intense relegation tussle? - © DFL Deutsche Fußball Liga

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The 2024/25 relegation battle: who will escape the drop?

05.01.2025

Having only survived via the relegation/promotion play-offs last season, Bochum are once again battling to stay up in 2024/25 – but they are just one of a number of teams trying to do so.

Union Berlin
Position: 12th
Points: 17 (from 15 games)
Goals: 14:9 (-5)

One of Union’s defining characteristics in recent seasons – from gaining promotion to the Bundesliga to securing UEFA Champions League qualification – has been their miserly defence.

Interestingly, that has not changed in 2024/25. With just 19 goals conceded, they have the second-best defensive record in the league, behind only leaders Bayern Munich.

Not only that but they score highly in other metrics, too. They are third for total challenges won (1,477) and aerial duels won (317), second for fouls committed (199), overall distance covered (1,803.2 kilometres) and intensive runs (11,308), and top for yellow cards received (43).

So if they’re defending well and remain physically imposing, what is going on? Well, it seems their problems this term have come in the final third, where their tally of 14 goals scored is only better than that of St. Pauli (12) and Bochum (13).

Benedikt Hollerbach is their leading scorer with three goals, while Tom Rothe and Wooyeong Jeong are the only other players to have found the net more than once. Will former Union player Steffen Baumgart, appointed over the winter break to replace Bo Svensson as head coach, be able to revive their fortunes up front?

Augsburg
Position: 16th
Points: 16 (from 15 games)
Goals: 17:32 (-15)

If that seems like a fairly clear task for Baumgart to get to grips with, Augsburg coach Jess Thorup has his work cut out at both ends of the pitch.

Not only are Die Fuggerstädter conceding at an alarming rate (32 so far) - including letting in three or more on six occasions - they have only scored 17 times and have failed to hit the target at all in five games.

“We couldn’t really enjoy the festive period this year,” said Thorup. “The [5-1] defeat in Kiel hurt us for a few days, but now we want to look forward. We want to improve in every area so we need complete focus.”

That desire to get better has extended to his backroom staff, with the 54-year-old recruiting Mathias Kleine-Möllhoff over the winter break to head up a newly founded sports psychology department at the club.

How immediate of an impact will that have? We will get a glimpse on Matchday 16 when Augsburg host VfB Stuttgart on Sunday 12 January.

Will Jess Thorup come up with a way to get Augsburg out of trouble? - IMAGO/Grant Hubbs

St. Pauli
Position: 14th
Points: 14 (from 15 games)
Goals: 12:19 (-7)

This season was always going to be a tough one for St. Pauli. A first campaign in the top flight tends to be tricky for promoted teams, but all the more so for the Boys in Brown after their Bundesliga 2-winning coach Fabian Hürzeler left to join Brighton over the summer, with Alexander Blessin taking over.

The 51-year-old has kept Pauli’s backline in good working order: with only 19 goals conceded, they have let in fewer than the likes of Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund.

However, they have found goals difficult to come by and have scored the lowest amount (12) of all top-flight teams. Blessin has worked to remedy that and made early moves in the January transfer window, bringing in winger Noah Weißhaupt on loan from Freiburg and promising centre forward Abdoulie Ceesay.

If the Hamburg-based side can click going forward, they should soon be able to pull away from the danger zone.

Watch: Highlights of Pauli's Matchday 15 win over Stuttgart

Hoffenheim
Position: 15th
Points: 14 (from 15 games)
Goals: 20:28 (-8)

Despite – or perhaps because of – finishing seventh in the Bundesliga last season and therefore qualifying for the UEFA Europa League, Hoffenheim have struggled for consistency this term.

They have not managed to win any of their Bundesliga matches immediately following a European assignment, nor have they recorded back-to-back wins in the league, while the team’s longest unbeaten stretch is just two games.

Christian Ilzer, who enjoyed great success as head coach of Sturm Graz in Austria, was brought in to steer the ship to calmer waters following the dismissal of Pellegrino Matarazzo after Matchday 10 in November.

His debut hinted at better things to come as the side came from behind to beat RB Leipzig 4-3, but that remains the only win of his tenure so far. Three draws and four defeats have followed in all competitions.

The 47-year-old has plenty of quality to work with, notably Andrej Kramarić up front and the ever-improving Tom Bischof in midfield, while Gift Orban, a January signing from Lyon should provide greater firepower going forward. Will he have been able to get his ideas across during a winter-break reset?

Heidenheim
Position: 16th
Points: 10 (from 15 games)
Goals: 18:33 (-15)

Heidenheim, much like Hoffenheim, are perhaps victims of their own success last season. Consistently impressive displays not only earned qualification to the UEFA Conference League, it shone a spotlight on their best players, with top scorer Tim Kleindienst and top assist provider Jan-Niklas Beste departing over the summer.

That left head coach Frank Schmidt with a rebuilding job, all while navigating the extra workload and travel that European competition involves. A leaky defence has been the main issue: having conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game in 2023/24, that figure stands at 2.2 per match this season.

Schmidt is a wily operator, though, and will have a plan figured out. He has already showed his hand by making two early January signings in the shape of Bundesliga 2 top scorer Budu Zivzivadze and Bayern Munich loanee Frans Krätzig, who should help restore some menace in attack.

Heidenheim start the year with a series of potentially season-defining fixtures, with games against fellow strugglers Union, St. Pauli and Augsburg among their first four Bundesliga assignments of 2025.

Watch: The best of Budu Zivzivadze

Holstein Kiel
Position: 17th
Points: 8 (from 15 games)
Goals: 19:38 (-19)

The season was looking rather bleak for Kiel until a morale-boosting 5-1 win at home to Augsburg just before the winter break provided renewed hope of survival.

“You could see what we’re capable of,” said Phil Harres, scorer of two goals in that victory. “We needed that. Obviously it makes no difference if we win 2-1 or 5-1, but it’s fantastic psychological boost.”

The 22-year-old now has four goals to his name in his maiden top-flight campaign, and alongside fellow attacker Shuto Machino, who has six goals and one assist, Kiel do have the weapons to cause opponents problems.

Their 2-2 draw on Matchday 6 away at reigning champions Leverkusen – who had gone 2-0 up inside eight minutes – also provides testament to the team’s grit on their day.

They just need to have their day more often. That and plugging the holes in the division’s most porous defence, which has let in 38 goals already. To that end, head coach Marcel Rapp signed Slovenia international David Zec earlier this month to marshall the rearguard from centre-back.

Currently six points adrift of outright safety, a couple more surprising results could soon change Kiel’s whole outlook.

Watch: Highlights of Kiel's thumping win over Augsburg

Bochum
Position: 18th
Points: 6 (from 15 games)
Goals: 13:35 (-22)

Bochum, much like Hoffenheim, have not had the new-coach bounce they were hoping for when they replaced Peter Ziedler - less than four months after hiring him - for renowned firefighter Dieter Hecking.

The 60-year-old presided over a respectable 1-1 draw against Leverkusen in his first game in charge but that was followed by three consecutive defeats and then a draw at Union.

A 2-0 success over Heidenheim right before Christmas has offered a glimmer of hope given that it was their first win and first clean sheet of the season.

Watch: Highlights of Bochum's Matchday 15 win over Heidenheim

There are other signs that the team is moving in the right direction, too. Bochum conceded 29 times in their first nine Bundesliga games of the campaign but under Hecking they have only let in six in six matches. Only Werder Bremen (five) conceded fewer goals across that same period.

Nevertheless, Bochum’s situation remains precarious. Bottom of the table with just six points on the board, they are eight adrift of outright safety. But if they can keep picking up points here and there to continue the upward trend under Hecking, a great escape may yet be possible.