Robert Lewandowski and the top 10 overperformers for goals scored vs xG
It seems that as far as Robert Lewandowski is concerned, we should expect the unexpected. That's according to the latest Expected Goals (xG) data for the Bundesliga this season, which suggests that the unparalleled Bayern striker is converting far more chances than he should be.
xG data is designed to give an idea of how many goals a team or a player is likely to score, based on a number of factors including the quality of chance that was created. You are much more likely to score from a penalty, for example, than with a long-range shot.
Words like clinical, lethal, and ruthless get thrown about fairly easily in football, but the data behind Lewandowski’s goalscoring exploits suggest such descriptions are entirely fitting.
Named as the best men's player in the world in 2020, the Poland captain already has 24 goals in 19 Bundesliga matches this season.
Five have come from the penalty spot, but xG data nonetheless suggests that the five-time Bundesliga top goalscorer has plundered an incredible 14 more goals than he was expected to. This means that far from netting empty-net tap-ins every week, Lewandowski is firing home from all sorts of angles and often under considerable pressure.
Watch: Lewandowski now has over 250 Bundesliga goals
But he's not the only one. Bayern Munich teammate Thomas Müller has five more goals than expected, while Stuttgart sensation Silas Wamangituka has four more than seemed likely.
Bayer Leverkusen's Lucas Alario, Borussia Dortmund's Erling Haaland, Hoffenheim's Andrej Kramaric, and Wolfsburg's Wout Weghorst have also been particularly efficient with their finishing. All four players have found the net three times more than the difficulty of their attempts at goal would have led us to believe.
The most unexpected name on the list, though, is that of midfield Elvis Rexhbecaj at Cologne. He's found the net five times this season while he's been expected to score just once.
As usual though, no one can match Lewandowski. If the former Dortmund forward continues his current xG streak, then surely he has a realistic chance of matching Gerd Müller's single-season record of 40 league goals from the 1971/72 campaign.
Watch: See all of Haaland's goals this season
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The top 10 overachievers in the Bundesliga:
1) Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
Goals: 24 xGoals: 15.5 Difference: 8.5
2) Thomas Müller (Bayern Munich)
Goals: 10 xGoals: 5.2 Difference: 4.8
3) Silas Wamangituka (VfB Stuttgart)
Goals: 11 xGoals: 7 Difference: 4
4) Elvis Rexhbecaj (Cologne)
Goals: 5 xGoals: 1.3 Difference: 3.7
5) Lucas Alario (Bayer Leverkusen)
Goals: 8 xGoals: 4.6 Difference: 3.4
6) Wout Weghorst (Wolfsburg)
Goals: 14 xGoals: 10.8 Difference: 3.2
7) Sasa Kalajdzic (VfB Stuttgart)
Goals: 8 xGoals: 4.8 Difference: 3.2
8) Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund)
Goals: 14 xGoals: 10.8 Difference: 3.2
9) Andre Silva (Eintracht Frankfurt)
Goals: 17 xGoals: 13.8 Difference: 3.2
10) Andrej Kramaric (Hoffenheim)
Goals: 13 xGoals: 10 Difference: 3
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