Bayer Leverkusen have only lost once, so why are they six points behind Bayern Munich?
Defending Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen have only lost once in the league so far this season, so how come they're six points behind leaders Bayern Munich?
It may seem pedantic to look for flaws in a side that has just gone 17 league matches unbeaten, but such was the relentless standard that Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen set in their historic unbeaten 2023/24 title-winning season. There is one lingering vulnerability after their a 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig in Matchday 19.
First-half goals from Patrik Schick and Aleix García had put Leverkusen 2-0 up and on course for the points, but they were pegged back and failed to win – and not for the first time this season.
Watch: Leverkusen held in Leipzig on Matchday 19
In fact, it was the sixth occasion in 2024/25 that Alonso’s side have failed to hold on to the points in the Bundesliga. The 3-2 Matchday 2 defeat at home to Leipzig was the first, and was followed by a 1-1 draw in Munich on Matchday 5, a 2-2 draw at home to Holstein Kiel on Matchday 6, a 2-2 draw in Bremen on Matchday 8 and a 1-1 draw in Bochum on Matchday 10.
It has also happened twice in the UEFA Champions League. A 1-1 draw with Brest on Matchday 3 and a 2-1 defeat at Atlético Madrid on Matchday 7 represent five points dropped from winning positions.
For context, this did not happen at all in 2023/24. Perhaps it was masked by Leverkusen’s tendency to score late winners last term when they smashed a staggering 22 goals after the 75th minute (including five in stoppage time).
This season they have managed just five goals in the final 15 - a figure 11 other sides in the league can better. Indeed, the reigning champions have been outscored by their opponents in the final 15 minutes so far this season - by eight goals to those five.
Watch: Analysing champions Bayer Leverkusen
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All of which begs the question; as the season heads into its decisive final months, has anything fundamental shifted, or have Leverkusen simply been unfortunate?
The lack of late goals have not made a significant difference to Leverkusen's overall scoring rate. Their 46 goals from their opening 19 matches have come at a rate of 2.4 per game - very close to the quota of 2.6 per match in 2023/24. With their shots per match also tracking closely at 16 compared to 18.1 last term, there is no obvious reason why the goals are no longer coming right at the end of encounters.
Other fundamentals in Leverkusen's play have remained remarkably similar, with average possession at 56.1 percent so far in the current campaign compared to 58.4 percent last time, and overall distance run an identical 118km per match. When it comes to sprints (245.6 vs. 235.6) and challenges won (52.9 percent vs. 51 percent), the double winners have actually improved their metrics this season.
The sole obvious statistical concern comes at the back - with Leverkusen conceding 1.4 goals per match this season - double the rate of 0.7 last time around. They have already let in more Bundesliga goals this term (26) than they did in the entirety of 2023/24 (24).
Watch: All of Florian Wirtz's goals and assists in 2024/25
Alonso therefore may be best advised to plot how the champions' defence might be tightened up. Improve that, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Leverkusen have what it takes still to close down the six-point gap and overhaul Bayern.
While the dropped points against Leipzig were unwanted, Bayer did manage to at least claim a point against the only Bundesliga team to have beaten them over the past 18 months, a run that incorporates 53 league matches!
They extended their unbeaten run in the current season to 17 matches since their 3-2 reverse against Leipzig on Matchday 2 in August, which is the kind of form that makes it impossible to cast them out of the title picture.
Added into the equation is also the magnificence of Florian Wirtz, whose creative powers have seemingly reached new heights this season with nine goals and nine assists in his first 19 appearances.
"It was a pleasure to see such beautiful actions,” Alonso told bundesliga.com after the playmaker's latest dazzling showing in Leipzig. “He is really, really special."
Watch: Alonso hails "really special" Wirtz
Then there is Schick - a source of several memorable late strikes last season - scoring for fun right now. His 13 goals in his last nine Bundesliga appearances marks a remarkable haul and is better than any other player – even that of top scorer Harry Kane.
Leverkusen face Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg next before welcoming Bayern in a top-of-the-table clash on Matchday 22. With Wirtz, Schick and – perhaps – a more robust defence, Leverkusen could yet reel in Bayern in what is shaping up to be a thrill-a-minute title race.
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