What do Bundesliga clubs need to qualify for the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League knockout stage?
Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart are all in a position where they can reach the knockout play-offs of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League, with the former three also eying direct progress to the round of 16 with a top-eight finish. What do they need from the final set of fixtures?
Matchday 8 of the new-format league phase sees all 18 matches played simultaneously at 9pm CET on Wednesday, 29 January with a lot still to play for. Here’s how it could all go down…
Matchday 8 fixture: Sparta Prague (H)
Xabi Alonso’s men currently occupy eighth place, which would mean going straight into the last 16 and avoiding two extra games. They are already assured of at least a spot in the play-offs. The Bundesliga champions lead a group of six teams on 13 points by virtue of goal difference, although every team down to Stuttgart in 24 are within three points. A slip against Sparta Prague will essentially end their top-eight hopes, unless every game involving teams directly below were to end in a draw. A win is their best chance of staying in the top eight, although it could come down to how great the margin of victory is for them and any of the teams directly below.
Matchday 8 fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk (H)
Dortmund sit in 14th place at the head of a group of five teams on 12 points, including Bayern. They could mathematically finish as high as fifth and book a place straight through to the last 16. A draw at home to Shakhtar, who have already lost to Bayern this campaign but are themselves in need of a win to have any chance of breaking into the play-off spots, is very unlikely to be enough to crack the top eight. A win offers BVB their best chance, but it all depends on the results of others as well. Last season’s runners-up cannot drop out of the top 24 and the play-off spots regardless of their result. Their final position will, of course, impact their seeding in the play-off draw.
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Matchday 8 fixture: Slovan Bratislava (H)
The picture is very similar for Bayern. They are a place and two goals behind Dortmund in 15th before hosting Slovan Bratislava, who are completely out of the running for progression and were beaten at home by Stuttgart last time out. Again, final position will be important for the Bundesliga leaders. Finishing in their current position, for example, would see them seeded in the play-offs but up against one of the top two unseeded teams, followed by a clash with the side that finishes first or second (currently between Liverpool and one of Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atlético Madrid and AC Milan). “We’ve got no fear of the play-offs. If we need to play them, we’ll play them. You need to earn the right to be in the top eight, and today we weren’t good enough,” said Vincent Kompany after the Bavarians’ 3-0 defeat at Feyenoord.
Matchday 8 fixture: Paris Saint-German (H)
Stuttgart currently occupy the last position for a play-off spot in 24th. Although that is only three points behind Leverkusen in eighth, there’s no real chance of Sebastian Hoeneß’s men getting up that high. A play-off berth (seeded or unseeded) is the best VfB can hope for. A draw at home to PSG will in all probability be enough for that as well, as Dinamo Zagreb could only overtake them by beating AC Milan by at least seven goals. Of course, a win over France’s champions will also be enough. Defeat would require Manchester City to fail to beat Club Brugge (and be eliminated), Zagreb to fail to beat Milan and Donetsk to fail to beat Dortmund by a large margin, otherwise Stuttgart will be out of Europe. Teams no longer drop into the Europa League.
As a reminder, teams level on points will be separated based on the following criteria, in this order:
- Superior goal difference in the league phase
- Higher number of goals scored in the league phase
- Higher number of away goals scored in the league phase
- Higher number of wins in the league phase
- Higher number of away wins in the league phase
- Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents
- Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents
- Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents
- Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all league phase matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
- Higher club coefficient
With seven games played, nine of the 36 teams are already confirmed as eliminated, as they are unable to make it into the top 24. Those are RB Leipzig, Bologna, Red Star Belgrade, Girona, Red Bull Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Sparta Prague, Sturm Graz and Young Boys.
Why does final position matter?
UEFA’s new format is designed to reward teams for finishing higher in the standings. As such, the knockout stages have been changed to brackets, like in a tennis tournament, whereby the top two seeds – or in this case the teams that finish first and second – are placed on opposite sides and could only meet in the final. It also means teams that finish higher will be drawn against teams that finish lower.
When the draw is made for the play-offs on 31 January, teams will be paired up based on their final positions. Teams nine and 10 are together, 11 and 12 together, and so on down to 23/24.
A team from the highest-ranked pairing (nine and 10) will then be drawn against a team from the lowest-ranked pairing (23 and 24). The remaining two will then also face each other. The same process continues with the next best against the next lowest through to 15th/16th against 17th/18th.
At the same time, each match-up is assigned a side of the draw (silver and blue), which is then used to determine their potential opponent in the last 16, whereby the top eight are again paired (first/second, third/fourth, fifth/sixth and seventh/eighth), with one assigned to the silver or blue path.
The positions of pairings are already predetermined (like in tennis) to theoretically reward teams seeded higher. The draws simply determine on which side teams will compete, adding an unknown element to the process.
There are no restrictions on who can face who in terms of country protection or avoiding opponents from the league phase.
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