Goals and Expected Goals: the Bundesliga's top 5
There have been 480 goals scored over the first 16 matchdays of the 2023/24 season, with five clubs leading the way both in terms of goals, and expected goals.
Bayern Munich (49 goals, 43.9 xG)
Bayern may not be in the position they prefer to be in, currently second in the standings, but they have scored the most goals, and produced the highest xG from the 15 games they have played so far this season. Having scored at least once in their past 42 Bundesliga games, Bayern have found the back of the net 49 times so far this season – and that from an xG of 43.9, meaning a surplus of 5.1 goals over expectations. Should they keep scoring at this rate, they would end the season with 111 goals!
Watch: Sané's assists for Kane's goals so far...
Much of the credit for exceeding their xG goes to summer signing Harry Kane, whose record-breaking 21 goals from 15 games sees him top the scoring charts with a never-before-seen tally for such a stage of a season. The England captain also exceeds his own xG by 6.1 goals, which is also the best in the league – which is where he and Bayern hope to be come the end of the campaign.
Bayer Leverkusen (46 goals, 39 xG)
They may be second in terms of total goals scored (46) and third in terms of xG (39), but both represent new club records for Die Werkself, who lead the Bundesliga into the winter break. The most goals Leverkusen had ever scored from the first 16 games of a season was 42, while they are the first German club ever to navigate their first 25 competitive fixtures of a season without losing, with Xabi Alonso's men boasting a remarkable 22 wins and three draws which equates to 42 points from the first 16 Bundesliga games of the season – the fourth-best return by any club in Bundesliga history.
Watch: the best of Victor Boniface
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Victor Boniface has made the biggest contribution with his 10 goals, ranking him fourth across the division, and that included seven goals in the first seven games, including three braces. Another new signing was even more effective, though, with Alejandro Grimaldo exceeding his xG by 4.1 – the best return for a defender in the Bundesliga. His seven goals is a remarkable return for a full-back, with three coming from long range (only VfB Stuttgart's Serhou Guirassy has more) and two from a direct free-kick – a league-leading number together with Heidenheim's Jan-Niklas Beste.
RB Leipzig (38 goals, 34.7 xG)
Leipzig's goals have been coming from all angles this season, with a total of 14 different goalscorers over the first 16 matchdays – more than any other side in the Bundesliga. Loïs Openda scored the most, with 11, placing him third across the league, while the DFB Cup holders celebrated a total of 38 goals from an xG of 34.7, putting them third and fourth in the respective rankings. All of that earns them a current fourth place in the Bundesliga, on course for another UEFA Champions League qualification.
Watch: Xavi's assists for Openda so far...
One of the influences behind the Saxony club's form is a new face: Xavi Simons. Only Leroy Sané has more assists (8) than the Dutch summer signing, who has set up seven goals for his teammates (all across the first 11 matchdays) – which is more than any player in Leipzig's Bundesliga history.
VfB Stuttgart (37 goals, 40.1 xG)
One of the surprise packages of the first half of the season is Stuttgart. After missing relegation by a hair's breadth last term, the Swabians have transformed into serious candidates for European football next season, with their 37 goals ranking them fourth and representing the most they have scored at this stage of a season since the 39 they struck in 1996/97. In terms of xG, their 40.1 is the second highest in the Bundesliga so far this season.
Watch: the best of Serhou Guirassy
They have the league's second-best striker to thank with Serhou Guirassy's 17 goals steering them to the upper echelons of the league. While the Guinean has been red hot, the same cannot entirely be said of Sebastian Hoeneß' men when considering their xG, which is three goals higher than their actual return – which means there could and perhaps should have been more in their season so far than the third position they hold at the turn of the year.
TSG Hoffenheim (32 goals, 30.2 xG)
Perhaps surprisingly the fifth most prolific club in the Bundesliga so far this season are Hoffenheim, who have also bounced back well from a difficult 2022/23 campaign in which, after spending much of the season struggling near the relegation zone, they climbed to finish 12th. They spent this winter break at an even higher altitude of seventh, thanks to the 32 goals which ranks them fifth and an xG of 30.2 which is also the fifth highest in the division.
With at least a goal in their past 20 Bundesliga games, the Sinsheimers have set a new club record, and they have found the back of the net more often than sides like Dortmund (30) and Eintracht Frankfurt (26), with Andrej Kramarić and Maximilian Beier leading the way with six goals each.
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